{"id":6838,"date":"2026-04-20T14:39:30","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T18:39:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/?p=6838"},"modified":"2026-04-20T14:39:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T18:39:32","slug":"previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes"},"content":{"rendered":"[et_pb_section fb_built=\u00a0\u00bb1″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb1115.6px\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb||270px|||\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb0px||0px|||\u00a0\u00bb da_disable_devices=\u00a0\u00bboff|off|off\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb da_is_popup=\u00a0\u00bboff\u00a0\u00bb da_exit_intent=\u00a0\u00bboff\u00a0\u00bb da_has_close=\u00a0\u00bbon\u00a0\u00bb da_alt_close=\u00a0\u00bboff\u00a0\u00bb da_dark_close=\u00a0\u00bboff\u00a0\u00bb da_not_modal=\u00a0\u00bbon\u00a0\u00bb da_is_singular=\u00a0\u00bboff\u00a0\u00bb da_with_loader=\u00a0\u00bboff\u00a0\u00bb da_has_shadow=\u00a0\u00bbon\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb background_image=\u00a0\u00bbhttps:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg\u00a0\u00bb background_size=\u00a0\u00bbinitial\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb250.4px\u00a0\u00bb overflow-x=\u00a0\u00bbscroll\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb-17px|auto||auto||\u00a0\u00bb filter_opacity=\u00a0\u00bb78%\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_font=\u00a0\u00bbMontserrat|||on|||||\u00a0\u00bb text_text_color=\u00a0\u00bb#FFFFFF\u00a0\u00bb text_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb15px\u00a0\u00bb text_letter_spacing=\u00a0\u00bb8px\u00a0\u00bb text_line_height=\u00a0\u00bb1.9em\u00a0\u00bb background_layout=\u00a0\u00bbdark\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb371px\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb0px|50px||50px|false|false\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_style=\u00a0\u00bbpreset2″ global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes\u00a0<\/b><\/h1>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb81.4px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb hover_enabled=\u00a0\u00bb0″ global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb sticky_enabled=\u00a0\u00bb0″]

Les pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes s’annonce sous des auspices contrast\u00e9s. Si les grands instituts m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques mondiaux s’accordent \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir une activit\u00e9 proche ou l\u00e9g\u00e8rement inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la normale, plusieurs signaux pr\u00e9occupants invitent les populations et les gestionnaires de risques de la r\u00e9gion \u00e0 maintenir une pr\u00e9paration maximale.<\/span><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb background_color=\u00a0\u00bbrgba(0,101,114,0.31)\u00a0\u00bb width=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb max_width=\u00a0\u00bb2560px\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb68px\u00a0\u00bb height=\u00a0\u00bb100px\u00a0\u00bb max_height=\u00a0\u00bb1000px\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb||||false|false\u00a0\u00bb border_width_left=\u00a0\u00bb4px\u00a0\u00bb border_color_left=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22border_color_left%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_font=\u00a0\u00bb–et_global_body_font||||||||\u00a0\u00bb text_text_color=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb background_color=\u00a0\u00bbRGBA(255,255,255,0)\u00a0\u00bb text_orientation=\u00a0\u00bbjustified\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb|50px||50px|false|true\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb|0px|||false|false\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22text_text_color%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb]

\u26a0\u00a0 Un seul ouragan suffit pour provoquer une catastrophe. Quelle que soit l’activit\u00e9 globale pr\u00e9vue, la pr\u00e9paration et la pr\u00e9vention doivent \u00eatre totales et sans compromis. <\/i><\/b><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_font=\u00a0\u00bbMontserrat||||||||\u00a0\u00bb text_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb11px\u00a0\u00bb border_width_bottom=\u00a0\u00bb2px\u00a0\u00bb border_color_bottom=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22border_color_bottom%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb]

Saison cyclonique officielle : 1er juin 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes\u2026 mais d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9occupante<\/h2>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

La saison cyclonique atlantique 2026 d\u00e9butera officiellement le <\/span>1er juin<\/b> et s’ach\u00e8vera le <\/span>30 novembre<\/b>. Le <\/span>National Hurricane Center (NHC)<\/b><\/a> am\u00e9ricain commencera \u00e0 \u00e9mettre ses bulletins m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques tropicaux r\u00e9guliers d\u00e8s le 15 mai, soit deux semaines avant le d\u00e9but officiel de la saison.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mais le <\/span>Centre r\u00e9gional du climat des Cara\u00efbes (CARICOF)<\/span><\/a> tire d\u00e9j\u00e0 la sonnette d’alarme. Selon ses experts, la chaleur inhabituelle et persistante dans l’oc\u00e9an Atlantique Nord tropical pourrait conduire, d\u00e8s le mois d’avril 2026, \u00e0 une activit\u00e9 m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique s\u00e9v\u00e8re dans plusieurs points de la zone carib\u00e9enne en amont du d\u00e9but officiel de la saison.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cette pr\u00e9cocit\u00e9 n’est pas sans rappeler les tendances des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, marqu\u00e9es par un d\u00e9marrage de plus en plus anticip\u00e9 des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes tropicaux. \u00c0 l’\u00e9chelle locale, le CARICOF signale \u00e9galement un risque \u00e9lev\u00e9 de crues soudaines et d’inondations d\u00e8s avril-mai, ainsi qu’une s\u00e9cheresse de longue dur\u00e9e imminente \u00e0 Grenade, Saint-Vincent, en Martinique et en Dominique.<\/span><\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9visions saisonni\u00e8res comportent toujours une part d\u2019incertitude importante, notamment en raison de l\u2019\u00e9volution des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes climatiques globaux comme El Ni\u00f1o \/ La Ni\u00f1a.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Sources : CARICOF \u2013 Centre r\u00e9gional du climat des Cara\u00efbes, bulletin mars 2026 ; NHC\/NOAA, saison 2026.<\/span><\/i><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_font=\u00a0\u00bbMontserrat||||||||\u00a0\u00bb border_width_bottom=\u00a0\u00bb2px\u00a0\u00bb border_color_bottom=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22border_color_bottom%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb]

Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 d’apr\u00e8s les instituts<\/h2>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb background_color=\u00a0\u00bbrgba(0,101,114,0.31)\u00a0\u00bb width=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb max_width=\u00a0\u00bb2560px\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb134px\u00a0\u00bb height=\u00a0\u00bb100px\u00a0\u00bb max_height=\u00a0\u00bb1000px\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb-16px|auto||auto||\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb||||false|false\u00a0\u00bb border_color_all=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb border_width_left=\u00a0\u00bb4px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22border_color_all%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_font=\u00a0\u00bb–et_global_body_font||||||||\u00a0\u00bb text_text_color=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb background_color=\u00a0\u00bbRGBA(255,255,255,0)\u00a0\u00bb text_orientation=\u00a0\u00bbjustified\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb|50px||50px|false|true\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb0px|0px|||false|false\u00a0\u00bb hover_enabled=\u00a0\u00bb0″ global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22text_text_color%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb sticky_enabled=\u00a0\u00bb0″]

Important \u00e0 comprendre :<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes concernent l\u2019ensemble du bassin Atlantique. <\/i><\/b>Cela ne signifie pas que ces syst\u00e8mes toucheront les terres. Certains peuvent rester en mer, s\u2019affaiblir ou ne jamais impacter les Cara\u00efbes.<\/i><\/b><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb498.5px\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb14px|auto|33px|auto||\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb16px||3px|||\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb36px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)<\/h3>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb-27px|||||\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

L’organisme britannique Tropical Storm Risk, qui publie ses pr\u00e9visions pr\u00e9liminaires d\u00e8s d\u00e9cembre, anticipe pour 2026 une saison proche de la normale. Ses mod\u00e8les projettent 14 temp\u00eates nomm\u00e9es, 7 ouragans et 3 ouragans majeurs. Ces projections s’appuient sur des temp\u00e9ratures de surface de l’Atlantique sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 la moyenne et des aliz\u00e9s l\u00e9g\u00e8rement affaiblis dans les Cara\u00efbes. <\/span><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

AccuWeather\u00a0<\/h3>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb-21px|||||\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

Le service m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique am\u00e9ricain AccuWeather se montre l\u00e9g\u00e8rement plus prudent, pr\u00e9voyant entre 11 et 16 temp\u00eates nomm\u00e9es, dont 4 \u00e0 7 ouragans et 2 \u00e0 4 ouragans majeurs. Les eaux atlantiques devraient rester chaudes tout au long de l’ann\u00e9e, bien qu’en retrait par rapport aux niveaux records de 2023, ann\u00e9e qui avait produit 20 temp\u00eates nomm\u00e9es.<\/span><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb||0px|||\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

Climate Impact Company<\/h3>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb92.2px\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb-23px|||||\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

Ce cabinet d’analyse climatique, tr\u00e8s suivi dans le secteur de la r\u00e9assurance, table sur une fourchette de 12 \u00e0 16 temp\u00eates tropicales, environ 6 ouragans et 3 \u00e0 4 ouragans majeurs. Ces chiffres restent proches de la normale.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sources : Tropical Storm Risk, extended range forecast d\u00e9cembre 2025 ; AccuWeather, 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, mars 2026 ; Climate Impact Company, North Atlantic 2025 Review \/ 2026 Preliminary Forecast.<\/span><\/i><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_font=\u00a0\u00bbMontserrat||||||||\u00a0\u00bb border_width_bottom=\u00a0\u00bb2px\u00a0\u00bb border_color_bottom=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22border_color_bottom%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb]

La le\u00e7on des saisons r\u00e9centes dans les Cara\u00efbes : le nombre ne fait pas tout<\/h2>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

La saison 2025 rappelle cruellement que les statistiques globales peuvent masquer des r\u00e9alit\u00e9s locales catastrophiques. M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France Antilles a not\u00e9 que l’activit\u00e9 cyclonique 2025 s’est r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9e bien en dessous de la moyenne des vingt derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, avec une absence remarqu\u00e9e de syst\u00e8mes au pic statistique du d\u00e9but septembre. Pourtant, le ratio d’ouragans majeurs par rapport au nombre total de syst\u00e8mes a \u00e9t\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9lev\u00e9, et les dommages, consid\u00e9rables.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ce paradoxe, peu de syst\u00e8mes mais d’une intensit\u00e9 exceptionnelle, illustre le glissement observ\u00e9 dans le contexte du changement climatique. La mer des Cara\u00efbes, dont les temp\u00e9ratures de surface oscillent entre 27,5\u00b0C et 30\u00b0C, constitue d\u00e9sormais un r\u00e9servoir d’\u00e9nergie id\u00e9al pour la formation et le renforcement d’ouragans de cat\u00e9gories 4 ou 5.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Par ailleurs, le National Hurricane Center introduit en 2026 une mise \u00e0 jour importante du c\u00f4ne de pr\u00e9vision iconique, avec une meilleure visualisation des risques de vents et de pluies pour les zones int\u00e9rieures \u2014 pas seulement c\u00f4ti\u00e8res. Cette \u00e9volution illustre la prise en compte croissante des impacts terrestres des ouragans, souvent sous-estim\u00e9s par rapport aux submersions marines.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sources : M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France Antilles, bilan saison 2025 ; Atlas Cara\u00efbe \u2013 Universit\u00e9 de Caen Normandie, saison cyclonique 2024-2025 (Fr\u00e9d\u00e9rique Loew-Turbout, 2024) ; NHC, mise \u00e0 jour du forecast cone 2026.<\/span><\/i><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb background_color=\u00a0\u00bbrgba(0,101,114,0.31)\u00a0\u00bb width=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb max_width=\u00a0\u00bb2560px\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb134px\u00a0\u00bb height=\u00a0\u00bb100px\u00a0\u00bb max_height=\u00a0\u00bb1000px\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb-16px|auto||auto||\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb||||false|false\u00a0\u00bb border_color_all=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb border_width_left=\u00a0\u00bb4px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22border_color_all%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_font=\u00a0\u00bb–et_global_body_font||||||||\u00a0\u00bb text_text_color=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb background_color=\u00a0\u00bbRGBA(255,255,255,0)\u00a0\u00bb text_orientation=\u00a0\u00bbjustified\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb|50px||50px|false|true\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb0px|0px|||false|false\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22text_text_color%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb]

En 2024, trois ouragans de cat\u00e9gorie 5 se sont succ\u00e9d\u00e9 : du jamais vu depuis le d\u00e9but de l’\u00e8re satellitaire. Le changement climatique contribue \u00e0 augmenter et renforcer la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements intenses, rendant les pr\u00e9visions globales moins pr\u00e9dictives des impacts r\u00e9els sur les territoires.<\/i><\/b><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb min_height=\u00a0\u00bb287.2px\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb||0px|||\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_font=\u00a0\u00bbMontserrat||||||||\u00a0\u00bb text_text_color=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb border_width_bottom=\u00a0\u00bb2px\u00a0\u00bb border_color_bottom=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22border_color_bottom%22,%22text_text_color%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb]

Se pr\u00e9parer, quelles que soient les pr\u00e9visions<\/h2>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]

Face \u00e0 ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments, un principe fondamental reste : la pr\u00e9paration aux risques.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pour bien vous pr\u00e9parer, rendez-vous dans la rubrique : comment se prot\u00e9ger<\/a> y comment se prot\u00e9ger d\u2019un ouragan. <\/a><\/b><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_font=\u00a0\u00bbMontserrat||||||||\u00a0\u00bb border_width_bottom=\u00a0\u00bb2px\u00a0\u00bb border_color_bottom=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-2352d280-fe84-43b1-a71e-f400c35a526a%22:%91%22border_color_bottom%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb]

Sources et r\u00e9f\u00e9rences\u00a0<\/h2>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.27.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_text_color=\u00a0\u00bbgcid-body-color\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{%22gcid-body-color%22:%91%22text_text_color%22%93}\u00a0\u00bb]
    \n
  • CARICOF \u2014 Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum, bulletin climatique mars 2026.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • AccuWeather, \u00ab 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: 11-16 named storms predicted \u00bb, mars 2026.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • Tropical Storm Risk (TSR\/UCL), extended range seasonal forecast, d\u00e9cembre 2025.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • Climate Impact Company, \u00ab North Atlantic 2025 Tropical Cyclone Season Review, Preliminary 2026 Forecast \u00bb, d\u00e9cembre 2025.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • NOAA \/ Climate Prediction Center, El Ni\u00f1o Watch et perspectives saisonni\u00e8res, mars 2026.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • Fox Weather, \u00ab Strong El Ni\u00f1o could alter 2026 hurricane season in the Atlantic \u00bb, mars 2026.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France Guadeloupe, bulletin des tendances mensuelles, mars 2026.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France Antilles-Guyane, synth\u00e8se de la saison cyclonique 2025.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • Atlas Cara\u00efbe \u2013 Universit\u00e9 de Caen Normandie, Fr\u00e9d\u00e9rique Loew-Turbout, \u00ab Saison cyclonique 2024-2025 \u00bb, 2024. [hal-05562151]<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • Organisation m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique mondiale (OMM), 48e session du Comit\u00e9 des ouragans de la r\u00e9gion IV, 4 mars 2026.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • NHC \u2014 National Hurricane Center, rapports de saison 2024 et 2025, mise \u00e0 jour du forecast cone 2026.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes\u00a0Les pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes s’annonce sous des auspices contrast\u00e9s. Si les grands instituts m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques mondiaux s’accordent \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir une activit\u00e9 proche ou l\u00e9g\u00e8rement inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la normale, plusieurs signaux pr\u00e9occupants invitent les populations et les gestionnaires de risques de la r\u00e9gion \u00e0 maintenir une pr\u00e9paration […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4656,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"\n

    <\/code><\/pre>\n","_et_gb_content_width":"1080","footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-french"],"yoast_head":"\nPr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes - Caribbean Risks<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Quelles sont les pr\u00e9visions pour la saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes ? D\u00e9couvrez les pr\u00e9visions des instituts, les le\u00e7ons des saisons r\u00e9centes, les tendances et comment vous pr\u00e9parer face aux ouragans.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes - Caribbean Risks\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Quelles sont les pr\u00e9visions pour la saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes ? D\u00e9couvrez les pr\u00e9visions des instituts, les le\u00e7ons des saisons r\u00e9centes, les tendances et comment vous pr\u00e9parer face aux ouragans.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Caribbean Risks\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-20T18:39:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-20T18:39:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Equipe Caribbean Risks\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Equipe Caribbean Risks\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Equipe Caribbean Risks\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#\/schema\/person\/474e15c7c5d59f943dece4e7102ef53b\"},\"headline\":\"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-20T18:39:30+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-20T18:39:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/\"},\"wordCount\":2264,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"French\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/\",\"name\":\"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes - Caribbean Risks\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-20T18:39:30+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-20T18:39:32+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#\/schema\/person\/474e15c7c5d59f943dece4e7102ef53b\"},\"description\":\"Quelles sont les pr\u00e9visions pour la saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes ? D\u00e9couvrez les pr\u00e9visions des instituts, les le\u00e7ons des saisons r\u00e9centes, les tendances et comment vous pr\u00e9parer face aux ouragans.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":400},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/\",\"name\":\"Caribbean Risks\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#\/schema\/person\/474e15c7c5d59f943dece4e7102ef53b\",\"name\":\"Equipe Caribbean Risks\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/author\/caribbeanrisks\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes - Caribbean Risks","description":"Quelles sont les pr\u00e9visions pour la saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes ? D\u00e9couvrez les pr\u00e9visions des instituts, les le\u00e7ons des saisons r\u00e9centes, les tendances et comment vous pr\u00e9parer face aux ouragans.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/","og_locale":"es_ES","og_type":"article","og_title":"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes - Caribbean Risks","og_description":"Quelles sont les pr\u00e9visions pour la saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes ? D\u00e9couvrez les pr\u00e9visions des instituts, les le\u00e7ons des saisons r\u00e9centes, les tendances et comment vous pr\u00e9parer face aux ouragans.","og_url":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/","og_site_name":"Caribbean Risks","article_published_time":"2026-04-20T18:39:30+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-04-20T18:39:32+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":400,"url":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Equipe Caribbean Risks","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Escrito por":"Equipe Caribbean Risks","Tiempo de lectura":"6 minutos"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/"},"author":{"name":"Equipe Caribbean Risks","@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#\/schema\/person\/474e15c7c5d59f943dece4e7102ef53b"},"headline":"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes","datePublished":"2026-04-20T18:39:30+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-20T18:39:32+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/"},"wordCount":2264,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg","articleSection":["French"],"inLanguage":"es"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/","url":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/","name":"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes - Caribbean Risks","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg","datePublished":"2026-04-20T18:39:30+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-20T18:39:32+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#\/schema\/person\/474e15c7c5d59f943dece4e7102ef53b"},"description":"Quelles sont les pr\u00e9visions pour la saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes ? D\u00e9couvrez les pr\u00e9visions des instituts, les le\u00e7ons des saisons r\u00e9centes, les tendances et comment vous pr\u00e9parer face aux ouragans.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"es","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"es","@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4.jpg","width":1200,"height":400},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/previsions-saison-cyclonique-2026-caraibes\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Accueil","item":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Pr\u00e9visions saison cyclonique 2026 dans les Cara\u00efbes"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/","name":"Caribbean Risks","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"es"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/#\/schema\/person\/474e15c7c5d59f943dece4e7102ef53b","name":"Equipo Caribbean Risks","url":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/author\/caribbeanrisks\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6838"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6838\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6969,"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6838\/revisions\/6969"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4656"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/caribbean-risks.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}