2026 Hurricane Season Forecast in the Caribbean

2026 hurricane season forecast in the Caribbean is expected to present mixed signals. While major international meteorological agencies anticipate activity close to or slightly below average, several concerning indicators call for continued vigilance and maximum preparedness among populations and risk management stakeholders across the region.

⚠️ A single hurricane is enough to cause a disaster. Regardless of the overall seasonal outlook, preparedness and prevention must remain comprehensive and uncompromising.

Official hurricane season: June 1, 2026, in the Caribbean…already a cause for concern

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will officially run from June 1 to November 30. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin issuing regular tropical weather outlooks as early as May 15, two weeks before the official start of the season.

However, the Caribbean Regional Climate Centre (CARICOF) has already raised concerns. According to its experts, unusually warm and persistent sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic could trigger significant weather activity across parts of the Caribbean as early as April 2026, ahead of the official season.

This early activity reflects a broader trend observed in recent years, with tropical systems forming earlier than historically expected. At the local level, CARICOF also highlights an increased risk of flash floods and flooding events from April to May, as well as the likelihood of prolonged drought conditions in Grenada, Saint Vincent, Martinique, and Dominica.

Seasonal forecasts always carry a significant degree of uncertainty, particularly due to the evolving influence of large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña.

Ressources : CARICOF – march 2026 bulletin ; NHC/NOAA

2026 hurricane season forecast in the Caribbean according to institutes

Important to understand:
Seasonal forecasts apply to the entire Atlantic basin. This does not mean that these systems will make landfall. Some may remain at sea, weaken, or never impact the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

The UK-based Tropical Storm Risk consortium projects a near-average season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. These projections are based on above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and slightly weakened trade winds across the Caribbean.

AccuWeather 

The American forecasting service anticipates between 11 and 16 named storms, including 4 to 7 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. Ocean temperatures are expected to remain warm throughout the year, although lower than the record levels observed in 2023.

Climate Impact Company

This climate analytics firm forecasts 12 to 16 tropical storms, around 6 hurricanes, and 3 to 4 major hurricanes—figures broadly consistent with long-term averages.

Sources : Tropical Storm Risk, extended range forecast decembere 2025 ; AccuWeather, 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, mars 2026 ; Climate Impact Company, North Atlantic 2025 Review / 2026 Preliminary Forecast.

Lessons from recent seasons in the Caribbean: numbers do not tell the whole story

The 2025 season clearly illustrates that global statistics can mask severe local impacts. Despite below-average activity, the proportion of major hurricanes was particularly high, resulting in significant damage.

This paradox—fewer systems but higher intensity—reflects the evolving influence of climate change. With sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean ranging between 27.5°C and 30°C, the region has become a highly favorable environment for the rapid intensification of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

Furthermore, the National Hurricane Center has introduced an updated forecast cone in 2026, improving the visualization of inland risks such as wind and rainfall—beyond coastal storm surge. This reflects a growing recognition of inland impacts, which are often underestimated.

Ressources : Météo-France Antilles, 2025 bilan ; Caribbean atlas – Caen university, huricanne season 2024-2025 (Frédérique Loew-Turbout, 2024) ; NHC. 

In 2024, three Category 5 hurricanes occurred in a single season : an unprecedented event in the satellite era. Climate change is contributing to an increased likelihood of extreme events, making seasonal forecasts less predictive of actual impacts at the local scale.

Preparedness remains essential

In light of these elements, one fundamental principle remains: preparedness must not depend on seasonal forecasts.

To better prepare, consult the sections: “How to prepare” and “How to protect yourself from hurricanes.”

Ressources and references

  • CARICOF — Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum, march 2026 bulletin.
  • AccuWeather, « 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: 11-16 named storms predicted », march 2026.
  • Tropical Storm Risk (TSR/UCL), extended range seasonal forecast, december 2025.
  • Climate Impact Company, « North Atlantic 2025 Tropical Cyclone Season Review, Preliminary 2026 Forecast », december 2025.
  • NOAA / Climate Prediction Center
  • Fox Weather, « Strong El Niño could alter 2026 hurricane season in the Atlantic », march 2026.
  • Météo-France Guadeloupe
  • Météo-France Antilles-Guyane, hurricane season 2025
  • Caribbean atlas, Caen Normandie University 
  •  OMM
  • NHC — National Hurricane Center, 2024 and 2025 report season